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Download e-book for iPad: Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas by Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten

By Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson

Uncertainty research is a key portion of nationwide greenhouse gases stock analyses. the problems which are raised via the authors during this quantity, and the position that uncertainty research performs in lots of in their arguments and/or proposals, spotlight the significance of such efforts. insurance contains: bottom-up as opposed to top-down emission stock ways, compliance and verification concerns, and the function of uncertainty in emissions buying and selling schemes.

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Extra resources for Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading

Sample text

Technical Report no. 30, Copenhagen, Denmark: European Environment Agency. eu. int/EMEPCORINAIR4/en. , & Cohen, J. (2007). Practical applications of uncertainty analysis for national greenhouse gas inventories (in press). Houghton, J. , Meira Filho, L. , Bonduki, Y. ) (1997). Revised 1996 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. Bracknell, UK: IPCC/OECD/IEA, Meteorological Office. , & Winiwarter, W. (2004). Medium-term multi-gas mitigation strategies. Report to IIASA side event at the Conference of Parties (COP10), held on 8 December 2004 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Such an accounting system needs to be based on scientific knowledge and could derive from existing information (Houghton et al. 1997), but the choice of parameters or approaches by country experts should be kept to the minimum. Once fixed, the system should be kept constant for the commitment period. Removing this other large contributor to uncertainty, the subjective decision, will ensure more equal treatment of countries, even if uncertainty in terms of atmospheric fluxes remains high. As countries’ statistical systems may have been established in a similar fashion, even the above-mentioned minimum trend sources included in the emission inventories (specifically, exclusion of land use change sources) could, however, also reduce this uncertainty.

Is often impossible to collect similar sample data for many of the national statistics used in inventories. , tons of coal purchased). It is not meaningful to repeatedly collect independent sets of national statistics for the same year. Instead, we are often given a single emission value or activity factor that supposedly is a census of the entire population rather than a statistical sample, and so is unrepeatable. Our uncertainty estimate in this case represents an assessment by one or more experts of the probabilities that the estimate differs from the true value by “x “ ,” partly based on the experts’ general experiences of similar estimation problems and inventory data and partly based on the experts’ understanding about the country-specific inventory, such as possible doubleor undercounting of emissions.

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